Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Decisions







Life comes down to decisions doesn't it. Where you are at this moment can be traced back to previous decisions like links in a chain. The popular unfriendly notion that in day trading the decision making process is sped up like atoms in a chain reaction. Frenetic action, sweaty plams, nervous breakdowns. Everyone has their moments but it doesn't have to be like that.
I like time to be my friend. With that kind of talk I sound like a swing or position trader don't I? I'm not. Where their time is counted in days or weeks, my time is counted in multi-minute segments.
For example...I'm trading a trend. Is the trend is continuing or the trend is getting exhausted? Decisions. Information. Decisions. What are the S&P and QQQQ Nasdaq markets doing? What time of day is it? Decisions. Trade it until it exhausts itself. 30 minutes later volume starts to drop. The candles start to get shorter. A doji appears. Information. Decisions. Sell and take the profits. Short sell and play it the opposite way. Set my stop at the doji high. Price is now below the low of the last 5 minute candle. Add more size. Add more size. Its almost lunch time E.S.T. Cover and wait and see. Go on the hunt for another. It can be done in a relaxed way.

Repetition is the basis of skill. Musicians, athletes and traders are all involved in activities that lend themselves to repetition. As a trader you can use this to form and hone your skill. When you do the same thing over and over again hundreds and thousands of time it can become a reflex action. You don't need to think about what to do, you just do it like a race car driver reacting to a patch of oil on the track. It gets to be instinctive. This is pattern recognition game and that becomes the basis of your trading plan. Even though there is no certainty that the pattern you see now will follow though like the last similar one did, you must trade it on the probability that it will.

I captured these charts to illustrate this concept. On the first chart my short entry into MA is shown at the green lines. The red line show the point where I had to make a decision. The 2nd chart is the S&P 500 and the 3rd chart is the QQQQ at the same time. They showed me the market trend was down and that a little profit taking was happening. The last chart shows MA finished the day about $7 lower. I took my profit before the dead zone at lunch happened and was waiting for a trend to show itself later. It did 1 hour before the close.

2 comments:

Unknown said...

thank you so much for your help and information. I appreciate it
: )

trevor said...

Great post. Nice illustration of how the flow of the market is invaluable in timing entries in individual stocks.