Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Preparation.

As I woke up this morning and visualized the likely market moves (up, down and sideways) and going over my edge and plan in my head, I reflected on the huge pops we've had recently. I congratulated myself on being in the right place at the right time, recognizing the opportunity, taking advantage of the opportunity, and taking profits. I reminded myself it's a good thing to remain flexible and not have expectations, to plan for the downside. This lesson has been doled out in severe terms to traders who have expectations short and long and have been crushed by them. Seeing the big pops as a pattern in themselves should make you wary of the next time it looks like the perfect short setup. It's proof that anything can and does happen. It's proof that waiting for the perfect setup is pure folly - it never is 100% certain that a play will follow through according to your expectations. So having no expectations is the only way to trade smart. If you trade the probabilities and possibilities of something happening instead, preparing yourself beforehand for any event, you have the advantage over traders who do not. You are the one who will execute your plan, taking profits while others are unable to process what is happening.
Whatever forces that are trying to keep the markets up will probably try again and again until conditions change or they are unable to. Be prepared.

On another note, I was thinking last night on who I am as a trader and what I do. Trying to distill what I do down to the pure essence of my craft I came up with this credo:

I make money by exploiting the opportunities that market momentum presents me.

It would be a good exercise to think about what fits with you and how you view your trading.

1 comment:

joshua said...

i like how you say "play the probabilities and possibilities". it is probable that if i short this pop, it will go down. but it is possible that this pop will be the beginning of a new move. i have to keep my mind open. i know i am chasing prices and pops all day not wanting to miss a trade. if i am not comfortable with my stop risk, then i need to wait for the stock to come in closer so i can have a tighter stop or pass on the trade.