Monday, April 26, 2010

Reader Q & A. Defining your edge.



How would you define your edge? How would you suggest a beginning momo trader go about defining their own?

Define an edge?

A favorable margin, An advantage, Exploiting the conditions, Recognizing opportunity from weakness or strength, The time at which chance, conditions and your skills come together. An edge is all these things. It’s also something you know and trust in 100%. It’s the basis of momentum trading. Still after all that – what is it? Only knowledge I can’t clearly define other than it’s your foot in the door of opportunity. Chart parameters.

How do you get an edge?

Through seat time watching, trial and error, learning, observing yourself and the markets, recognizing the smallest connections between supply and demand.

I have become a specialist is recognizing and acting on the starts and finishes of momentum. That is one of my edges. And to take advantage of these opportunities I can apply my 2nd edge – a clear trading plan and system for managing the trade, profits or losses that works with my mental strength and personality. One without the other is useless.

I outlined one set of trading parameters that I recognize as an edge here: http://fearandgreedtrader.blogspot.com/2010/03/fngs-free-strategy-of-week-finger.html#links

A simple (all the best edges for anything are simple) way to trade that doesn’t require thought or opinion only observation. Managing the trade like that comes down to common sense as in I will sell and take profits when it stops going in the direction it’s going.

Another part that comprises an edge is keeping your goals in the forefront of your mind. Cut those losers, let the winners tell you when to sell them, never risk so much that it affects you, - trade your plan. All these things can be like a broken record in your subconscious that can spur you on. That is why concentration is vital as the foundation of your success. It is an edge in itself.

Another part is reading basic human emotion and under what conditions they typically occur. When you can trade in a manner that is detached from the emotion driving the markets and trade to take advantage of them instead you are in the drivers seat to profits instead of a passenger in control of nothing. Not even your own emotions.

AS you can see there are many different aspects that can make up an edge without hardly touching on the myriad of charting parameters that could initiate it.

Take the VECO trade shown here from today. 1st chart is short entry 2nd chart is exit. VECO is on my watchlist because it is a good mover with the things that are important to me, a small spread, good volume, good daily trading range.

AS VECO makes a new daily low it pops up on my making new lows list. Opportunity knocks. EDGE.

The previous low was the opening candle of the morning. So looking at the chart, some traders might say it’s already dropped .80 in the last 25 minutes how much lower is it going to go. I’m not thinking of that, instead I’m thinking it has just hit fresh lows and traders who bought it at the open and didn’t take profits are now seeing losses, fear or disgust. EDGE.

Experience also lets me wait for when just before the new five minute candle will appear to start my short trade based on what it did during 2 of the previous 3 candles. Look and you will see it retraced to the change of candles then dropped right away. I like those odds. EDGE.

So those were the chart parameters of the trade. Then it is a function of managing the trade. Set the stop(define the risk). EDGE.

Wait for the momentum to stop. In this case it didn’t so 5 minutes before the end of the day it is time to take A $1 run in profits. EDGE.

Every trade is not as clinical as this but hopefully you can see how it all fits together.


Thursday, April 22, 2010

Reader Q & A

How do you stop the nervous feeling or anxiety created by having the positions fluctuate? Or do you not really experience those emotions. Everytime I have a good trade going, I try not exit so quickly. I tell myself work with the 5 min chart. Yet, I always get out early due to wanting to end that emotional feeling of nervousness. Once the position is closed, I am not nervous anymore. I am thinking about changing my stops to trailing stops, so they move along with the profit, but I have never used these before. -Joshua

___________________________________________________________________

I think the unhelpful feelings you have when you put on a trade have to do with thinking about money too much. Yes I know this business is about making money but the trick is to think about the application of your edge and trading plan/system instead. Remain ambivalent about the trade you are in.

Any one single trade simply is not important. Whether you win or lose on that single trade is not important. Being right or wrong on that single trade is not important. What is important is sticking to your trading plan so that your edge (you must have an edge that works) can manifest itself through the endless stream of probabilities that present themselves during the day, weeks, and months. When you have nothing riding on the outcome of a trade it is easy to let it go to wherever it’s going to go and trade it accordingly. Like flipping a coin.

You might say that is easy to write and hard to put into practice, but the reality is that when you make a fundamental shift in your thinking so that you can view your trading as purely taking advantage of probabilities via your edge with complete disinterest in any individual outcome then you will have an easy time of it.

To me it comes down to mental preparation. Rehearsing in my mind what steps I need to take to implement my edge/system/plan before the day begins. Control what I can control – risk/losses with stop levels – I can control nothing else market related. Everything else though is taken care of by putting my system into practice exactly as I visualized and rehearsed it regardless of rising or falling markets. This singleness of purpose doesn’t have room to let any other emotions intrude. It is what it is. The charts tell the story. There is no room for hoping, wishing, fear, greed. Only the application of the system.

Start working with the market instead of viewing it as an adversary. It will tell you when to buy and when to sell. It provides you with the opportunities. The money that you gain or lose is only a byproduct of your edge and the proficiency of your application of it.

On a side note, are there any trading questions out there as I’ve about run out of things to write about on this blog and by now my system of trading is plain to see and getting to be a bit of a bore posting the same charts.

Monday, April 19, 2010

PPT in action



On weak days I've been watching for evidence of the PPT(Plunge Protection Team) getting actively involved.
When things look ready to drop bigtime I watch for a slowing and then upside reversal on low volume. It's exactly what we had today so I bot GS, TNA and shorted FAZ at the same time with the same result. By raising the market enough so that the weak shorts can't take the pain and start to cover it becomes a self fulfilling prophesy.

1st chart shows the QQQQ begin the run up on no volume.





GS long








sold GS

The art of profit taking






Since the markets have stopped their incessant march upwards at the moment, lots of shorting opportunities abound. New lows make newer lows and it's easy to catch some nice profits. The art of profit taking can be easy to apply if you employ a couple basic rules:
1. Have no profit target. Since you or no one else know for sure where a stock will rise or fall to, free your mind to only watch when it and the markets stop the current momentum. And,
2. Take profits when you'd be an bloody idiot not to.

A few examples today:
1st chart is LULU short
2nd chart is LULU profit taking













TNA short











TNA profit taking








VECO short
























































Friday, April 16, 2010


sold GS.

cover GS, and try the long again, doesn't seem to be much power in the downstroke at this moment

funny scalping GS
sold and short it again

cover GS and long again

stopped out GS and gone short again

bot GS

cover GS

short GS. It's flopping about at the moment.
Other good traders today have been LULU LVS TNA PCX WYNN

sold GS

bot GS

sold GS

rebot GS. I sold a few minutes ago before the shake out because it was looking just too good. It's typical GS tactics.

sold GS


GS shows me it's done dropping for the moment


doji on 15 minute chart















bot GS

GS should ask for their money back from their algorithm team if this small town high school grad trader can pick their pocket like this. No fakes outs, no hocus pocus, negative spreads whats going on...

bot GS














sold GS

Couldn't happen to a nicer company...



Nice short opps this morning, heres was one of them...
GS short

















cover GS take almost $7 profit run

Wednesday, April 14, 2010




Some charts from this afternoon.
Took some of the gaming stocks short.

LVS















LVS cover









WYNN short










WYNN cover









cover RMBS.
watch gaming stocks as they look to be selling off en masse after their recent run up WYNN LVS MGM BYD


bot RMBS pop

















took profits, gone short














Thursday, April 08, 2010

Why I don't swing trade.

Yesterday and today I had great day trades in FRX. Lots of nice volatility but still typical, dare I say, predictable movement.
As I turned on my screens this morning and saw this daily chart, I had to chuckle to myself over the FRX pile driver.
This is a perfect example of why I don't swing trade or ever hold anything overnight.
I want to be able to control the risk in an active manner not be hurled over a cliff strapped into a burning shit wagon. When something extraordinary happens during the day I can take advantage of it in either direction. I sleep good at night too.

Wednesday, April 07, 2010


bot and sold AIG

entry


















exit

bot and sold TNA



entry















exit

sold FRX, don't want to be a bagholder if it gets halted or something

re bot FRX

stopped out TNA

sold FRX take profits

cover TNA take profits gone long

bot FRX rocketship

1/2 hour left in the day, sell TNA get back on the short side, that's who is in control at the moment



A real O.G. trade here, caught TNA long then short


TNA long














take profits go short















cover take profits, play the bounce